Lagos 2027: Can Hamzat Break the Deputy Governor’s Curse, or Will the APC Break Itself?
By Usman Adewale
Lagos is a city that breathes politics, but lately, the air has grown thick with the scent of a brewing storm.
As the 2027 gubernatorial cycle begins its quiet crawl into the corridors of power, the name on every nervous lip is Dr. Kadri Obafemi Hamzat. The current Deputy Governor, a man who has enjoyed a front-row seat to power for nearly two decades, is reportedly making a high-stakes play for the top job.
But as the whispers of an “arranged” endorsement by the Governance Advisory Council (GAC) grow louder, so do the grumbles from the party’s grassroots. The strategy is familiar, the culture of Baba Sope (The Leader has spoken), where consensus is manufactured in a room and forced down the throats of the rank and file. However, history warns us that Lagosians, and indeed APC members, are tired of being treated like extras in a movie they didn’t audition for.
The Eight-Year Ceiling: A Question of Equity
Dr. Hamzat is no stranger to the Alausa Roundabout. Since 2005, he has transitioned from a high-ranking Commissioner for Science and Technology to Commissioner for Works, and now, nearly eight years as Deputy Governor.
The question isn’t whether he is competent; the question is: Is the APC a private estate? A Monopoly on Power: By the time 2027 arrives, Hamzat will have spent over 20 years in the highest echelons of Lagos governance.
The Deputy “Curse”: In the history of Lagos State, no Deputy Governor has ever successfully transitioned to Governor. From Kofoworola Bucknor-Akerele to Femi Pedro and Sarah Sosan, the office has traditionally been a supportive role, not a waiting room for the throne. Breaking this precedent via “imposition” sends a message that the party is no longer a platform for new blood, but a revolving door for the same faces.
History will also not forget how Hamzat is first deputy governor in Lagos to spend 8 years in office.
The Ghost of 2023: A Warning Ignored
The APC leadership would be wise to stop blaming “outsiders” for the 2023 presidential election results in Lagos. While the narrative of “ethnic voting” was a convenient shield, the data tells a more painful truth: The call was coming from inside the APC house.
The loss of Lagos during the presidential polls was a direct result of protest votes from aggrieved APC members. These were people tired of the “Handpicked” BabaSope system, loyalists who felt sidelined by a caucus that values loyalty to a person over loyalty to the process. When the GAC forces a candidate, the grassroots don’t just complain; they stay home, or worse, they vote for the “Other.”
“Democracy is not a gift given by a caucus; it is a right exercised by the people. When you take away the choice, you take away the motivation to win.”
The “Consensus” Lie
There are growing insinuations that Hamzat is peddling a narrative of a “pre-agreed” candidacy. Let us be clear: There is no such agreement. To claim consensus where there is only silence is a dangerous gamble and that is where Hamzat could not be trusted. A man who schemes consensus agreement where there is none, is definitely running deficit of trust.
The BabaSope era is facing a generational expiration date. Today’s Lagos voter, and indeed the average party member, is more informed and more defiant. If the leadership proceeds to crown Hamzat without a truly transparent, participatory primary, they aren’t just endorsing a candidate; they are endorsing a rebellion.
The Dangers Ahead: A Summary for the Leaders
The APC must weigh the cost of “cabal-driven” politics against the survival of the party. Forcing Hamzat’s candidacy risks:
Internal Sabotage: A repeat of the 2023 “silent protest” where members worked against their own party.
The “Entitlement” Label: Reinforcing the image of the APC as a party of “Tenured Landlords” rather than a true progressive movement.
Voter Apathy: If the primary is seen as a sham, the general election will see record-low turnout from the base.
The Bottom Line: Dr. Hamzat has served Lagos well, but the Governor’s seat is not a retirement benefit for long-serving deputies. The self-appointed GAC must realize that the “Selection” model is broken. If the APC wants to keep Lagos in 2027, it must return the power to the people, or watch the people take it back.
The leaders have been warned. The streets are watching.
USMAN ADEWALE, a Political Analyst wrote from Ikorodu, Lagos
